Future Bites 3 – Abundance accelerated

The third in a series of un-forecasts* – little glimpses of what may lie ahead in the century of two singularities. As promised, this one is more optimistic. Most professional drivers have lost their jobs, and although many have found new ones, they rarely pay anything like as much as the drivers used to earn. A host of other job categories are becoming the preserve of machines, including call centre operatives and radiographers. A few people still cling onto the notion that new types of jobs will be created to replace the old ones taken by machines, but most accept...

Future Bites 2 – Populism paves the way for something worse

The second in what looks like becoming a series of un-forecasts* – little glimpses of what may lie ahead in the century of two singularities. The third one will be more optimistic. Honest. In the five years of President Trump, corporate taxes were slashed and federal spending on infrastructure projects was boosted. Companies and individuals were exhorted (and sometimes extorted) to buy American, and imports were cut by tariff and non-tariff barriers. The impact was profound. Initially, US GDP rose sharply as its firms repatriated hundreds of $billions of profits from their foreign subsidiaries, and jobs were created to carry...

Betting on technological unemployment

Daniel Lemire is a Canadian professor of computer science.  He believes that cognitive automotive will not cause lasting unemployment.  I believe the opposite, as I have written in various places, including this blog post and my book, The Economic Singularity. Neither Daniel nor I has a crystal ball, and we both recognise that we could be wrong.  But we have both thought long and hard about the prospect, and we are both fairly confident in our predictions.  So after chatting about the issue online for a while, we have agreed a bet. There are currently around 1.7m long-haul truck drivers in...