“Calum’s Rule”

“Calum’s Rule”

Forecasts should specify the timeframe Disagreements which suggest profound differences of philosophy sometimes turn out to be merely a matter of timing: the parties don’t actually disagree about whether a thing will happen or not, they just disagree over how long it will take. For instance, timing is at the root of apparently fundamental differences of opinion about the technological singularity. Elon Musk is renowned for his warnings about superintelligence: “With artificial intelligence, we are summoning the demon. You know all those stories where there’s the guy with the pentagram and the holy water and he’s like, yeah, he’s sure...